Gardner Webb

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	244.0
Current RPI:	244
Expected SOS:	215
Current SOS:	215
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-6
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	231
Expected OOC SOS:	72

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	244.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	A	77-45	L	0%
11-13	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	116-74	L	0%
11-15	UCF (84.0)	Amer	A	68-65	L	0%
11-24	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	67-47	L	0%
11-25	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	N	64-75	L	0%
11-26	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	N	106-99	L	0%
12-2	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	87-66	W	100%
12-6	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	A	80-55	L	0%
12-9	Maryland (74.0)	B10	A	82-60	L	0%
12-17	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	A	79-80	W	100%
12-30	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	58-55	W	100%
1-3	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	80-82	W	100%
1-6	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	79-73	L	0%
1-9	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	62-45	W	100%
1-12	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	59-54	W	100%
1-15	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	90-67	L	0%
1-18	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	61-53	W	100%
1-21	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	83-68	L	0%
1-24	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	65-60	L	0%
1-27	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	60-57	W	100%
2-1	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	70-66	L	0%
2-3	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	63-61	W	100%
2-7	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	70-78	L	0%
2-10	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	77-65	L	0%
2-15	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	71-90	L	0%
2-18	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	66-65	L	0%
2-22	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	63-78	W	100%
2-24	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	72-61	W	100%
3-1	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	N	72-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Gardner Webb	BSth	26.49	26.49	39.82	39.82	-5.39	-5.39
Winthrop	BSth	6.19	6.19	52.00	52.00	0.25	0.25
Radford	BSth	4.67	4.67	63.33	63.33	1.25	1.25
Liberty	BSth	4.63	4.63	55.17	55.17	0.48	0.48
UNC Asheville	BSth	4.61	4.61	62.07	62.07	1.11	1.11
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.59	4.59	42.31	42.31	-0.71	-0.71
Longwood	BSth	4.57	4.57	10.71	10.71	-3.59	-3.59
Campbell	BSth	4.53	4.53	46.15	46.15	-0.35	-0.35
Presbyterian	BSth	4.51	4.51	29.63	29.63	-1.84	-1.84
High Point	BSth	4.50	4.50	40.00	40.00	-0.90	-0.90
USC Upstate	ASun	1.96	1.96	11.11	11.11	-1.53	-1.53
Auburn	SEC	1.84	1.84	77.42	77.42	1.01	1.01
Jacksonville	ASun	1.84	1.84	35.71	35.71	-0.53	-0.53
Fairfield	MAAC	1.78	1.78	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	1.78	1.78	70.97	70.97	0.75	0.75
Florida	SEC	1.75	1.75	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Hampton	MEAC	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Maryland	B10	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Miami FL	ACC	1.72	1.72	70.00	70.00	0.69	0.69
UCF	Amer	1.72	1.72	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.33	0.33	26.67	26.67	-0.15	-0.15
VMI	SC	0.23	0.23	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Georgia	SEC	0.23	0.23	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.23	0.23	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
Stetson	ASun	0.21	0.21	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.18	0.18	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
North Florida	ASun	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Furman	SC	0.15	0.15	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.13	0.13	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Charlotte	CUSA	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
NJIT	ASun	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Monmouth	MAAC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01